When he was young，Mr Gates wanted to be an economist.In a sense，he became one anyway.Microsoft is not a success because Mr Gates is a good prophet or even a good programmer but because of his grasp of the economics of information，where digital copying and computer networks push manufacturing and distribution costs close to zero.He understood early on that in a new hightech market consumers seek security by flocking to the products of the market leader.Market share，he realised，was everything.So in his very first deal with IBM，to supply an operating system for the firm’s personal computer，he charged a low initial fee on the condition that he would get revenues from each sale，and the right to license the product to other manufacturers.
Now the market is changing once again，from the world of the desktop computer to the “information highway”（which Mr Gates rightly says is better described as an information marketplace）.In this new world，fastrising companies such as Netscape and Sun Microsystems really did see the future before anyone else.Typicallytypically，Microsoft quickly adjusted，redesigning many of its products and marketing them as the best route to the Internet.The question is not whether Mr Gates can strain to see even further—the evidenceevidence so far suggests not—but whether his skill at making money in the slipstream of other people’s technological vision will serve him as well in the next decade as it has for the past two.
抓住近期目标是最重要的
仔细观察微软公司的人对于盖茨先生并未显出惊人的眼力这一点不会感到奇怪。事实上他自己也承认这点。二十年前，他问道：“如果计算机使用几乎是免费的，那将会怎样？”当时他欣然计算机大普及的看法，而现在他又问道：“如果通讯几乎是免费的，那又会怎样？”盖茨说他两次提问的不同之处在于“那时我唯恐别人会有与我们相同的看法；而现在我知道许多人都有和我们一样的看法。”他的聪颖过人之处从来也不在于他能够比任何人看得更远，而在于他能够把不远的将来看得更清楚，在于比他的竞争对手更清楚如何去开发未来。微软公司屡次识别并抓住其他人头脑中的可能成功的想法，只不过是把这些想法更好地加以实现罢了，而且在推向市场方面总是比设计方面做得更好。
盖茨先生年轻的时候就想做一名经济学家。在某种意义上，他总算成了一名经济学家。微软公司取得成功并非由于盖茨先生是一位出色的预言家或者甚至是一位优秀的程序设计专家，而是由于他能够掌握信息经济学，以致能利用电子拷贝以及计算机网络使生产和销售费用接近最低点。他早就懂得在高新技术市场上，消费者为了寻求产品的安全可靠性而涌向在市场上居领先地位者的产品。他认识到公司的市场份额是最重要的。所以在他首次与IBM公司打交道，为该公司的个人计算机提供一种操作系统时，起始费用要得很低，条件是该公司这种计算机的每一笔交易他都要从中提取一定的收益，同时他还保留向其他厂家发放产品许可证的权力。
现在，市场又一次发生了变化。从台式计算机时代变为“信息高速公路”（正如盖茨先生正确指出的那样，最好说成是信息市场）时代。在这一新的领域中，像网景公司和太阳微系统公司这些迅速发展起来的企业事实上比其他任何企业都更早地看到了未来市场的需要。但是，微软公司通常是迅速调整并重新设计了它的许多产品，并把它们作为通往互联网络的最佳途径而推向市场。问题并不是盖茨先生是否能努力看得更远一些——迄今为止，并非如此——而是在下一个十年，他是否还能像过去二十年那样，有本事借助他人的技术设想来赚钱。
The Internet Via Cable
Using cable Internet services for the first time can be a breathtaking experience.Images and text flash before your eyes instantlyinstantly.Fullmotion video and audio play without jitter.When you see this，you realize that this was how the Internet was meant to be.Even for Internet oldtimers，it’s like a whole new world.
The cable television network has emerged as the early leader in providing such highspeed data access in the home.With more than a million cable modern subscriberssubscriber now in North America，the system has matured from a string of experimental deployments in 1995to a mainstream service available in most major cities.
Internet access over cable runs at speeds up to 100times those of the traditional dialup world.This raw speed is the catalystcatalyst producing the dramaticdramatic change to typical Internet services.And the connection is “always on，”enabling users to call up a site immediately as the spirit moves them.Gone are the days of having to log in to the network.
